Lately, the internet’s been buzzing with panic over the idea of iPhones suddenly costing $3,500 USD — which would come out to more than $5,000 CAD — all thanks to Trump’s tariffs.
That number comes from a well-known stock analyst, who estimated what it might cost if Apple moved its entire iPhone supply chain to the U.S. in order to dodge tariffs on Chinese imports.
Sounds scary, right? Does that mean a $5,000 iPhone here in Canada?
Thankfully, no. But we can appreciate the confusion.
Tariffs are a relatively new thing for most of us. How all the pieces fit together is unclear: Trump is tariffing imports from China, Canada is tariffing many imports from America, Apple is an American company… How does this all shake out?
First things first: Where do iPhones come from?
Right now, about 90% of iPhones are manufactured in China. The rest mostly come from India, where Apple is rapidly ramping up production. But for the time being, most iPhones are still, for all intents and purposes, Chinese imports.
That’s important, because tariffs are based on a product’s Country of Origin which is where it was manufactured, not the brand’s headquarters. So even if it is marketed and sold by Apple, an American company, for tariff purposes, your iPhone’s Country of Origin is and always will be China.
So, what about Canada?
As of this writing, Canada does not impose tariffs on nearly all goods where China is the Country of Origin — and that includes iPhones.
If Apple ships iPhones straight from China to Canada (which they will), there are no tariffs applied*. So no, Trump’s tariffs should not have any effect on iPhone prices in Canada.
* If Apple got smart and tried to re-export that phone to the United States, Country of Origin rules would ensure that the 100%+ tariff on Chinese goods was applied when crossing the Canada-US border.
What about Trump’s tariffs in the U.S.?
That’s where things get interesting. If Apple ships iPhones to the U.S. from China, they could face tariffs of over 100%. That could significantly increase the retail price in the States — although it would likely not reach $3,500. A more realistic estimate comes from Neil Shah, vice president of research at Counterpoint Research, who estimates that iPhones could cost about 30% more, bringing the price of an iPhone 16 from $799 USD to about $1,040 USD… not as terrifying as that $3,500 estimate.
But here’s the key thing: that doesn’t affect prices in Canada. Unless…
Could Apple raise prices in Canada anyway?
Possibly. If Apple decides that having cheaper iPhones in Canada than the US is problematic, they might choose to increase Canadian prices just to keep things consistent. But that would be a business decision — not something caused by tariffs.
If US iPhone prices go way up and Canadian prices are relative unchanged, a lot more American tourists might start making “tech trips” north of the border. Though, heads up: if they declare that new iPhone at the border, they’ll still have to pay the U.S. tariff because of those Country of Origin rules.
The bottom line? You don’t need to worry about paying $5,000 for your next iPhone here in Canada. If tariffs stay in place, they will materially increase iPhone pricing in the U.S., but here in Canada, we’re still playing by the same rules as before — for now.
